WILL THE ANTI-RUSSIAN SANCTIONS SAVE THE WEST AND WILL THIS HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE FURTHER KREMLIN’S AGGRESSION IN THE WORLD?
Marian Zhytaryuk,
Doctor of Science in Social Communications, Full Professor, Head of Department of Foreign Press and Information Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Ukraine, https://orcid.org/0000-000 2-5690-5701
Victoria Zhytaryuk,
Master of Journalism, translation from Ukrainian, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3570-4521
Modern Russia, that is, Moscow, is frequently positioning itself as the Russian Empire, which understood only the language of force, weapons, violence, not partnership, negotiations and justice. Modern Moscow has recovered long ago from the USSR’s break-up in 1991, which the current and perhaps eternal and posthumous leader Vladimir Putin considers to be the “greatest geopolitical mistake” of the twentieth century. In this context, it is impossible to expect from the Kremlin nothing more than aggression, intimidation, blood and the horrors of domination.
If you go back into the history, it is easy to recall the March 8, 1169, when a military coalition of North-Russian principalities led by Vladimir-Suzdal prince Andrej Bogolyubsky began the robbery of Kiev, which lasted for five days and led to the city’s decline as ”the capital of ancient state”1 (https://www.jnsm.com.ua/h/0308N/), including the mass rape, slavery and murder of Kyiv women, mostly young2. It is also easy to recall the Mongol-Tatar burden (Golden Horde, 1237-1242), which, in fact, continued to realize the power of Moscow burden – both for the Slavic peoples and for others, mainly Tatars. There is also in native memory the destruction of Zaporizhzhya Sich (1775) as the Cossack state in general, and the seizure of a large part of the Caucasus and Crimea (1774), and Moscow’s approval on the northern Black Sea coast. The seizure of Bessarabia in 1812 was only the beginning of Moscow fable which was lasted for tens and hundreds times and which is still valid, about that it is the Russian tsar (ruler) who alone defends the interests of the Orthodox and protects Christians. There-fore, it is necessary to be afraid of Russian language, Russian Orthodoxy and Russian birch trees, because these symbols are capable to actualize the possible “defenses” of Moscovites in foreign lands, such as in Transnistria (last 25 years), in the Republic of Ichkeria (the end of XX – the beginning of XXI century), in Georgia (2008), in the Ukrainian Crimea (2014), in Donbass (from 2014 until now), in Syria (in recent years)…
In modern Russia, where the largest supplies of drinking water are concentrated, where there are most other natural reserves (oil, gas, gold, coal, ores of
ferrous and non-ferrous metals, including gold, precious stones, first of all
diamonds, wood), there are the largest area of the world, it turns out, that all this is not enough to just to live
for itself, to make friends with
neighbors, to
improve the social standards of own citizens. Modern Russia needs new victories at any costs. She needs a victory to be the subject of new pride. And it is no matter how the Russians live, the main thing is in that they, more precisely
their rulers and their weapons, should be feared all over the world!
It so happened that because of the Moscow aggression in
Ukraine, the Kiev ruling clique did not obey and began an
information confrontation, organized a positional confrontation with the
separatist centers under the Kremlin patronage. Official Kyiv began to entreat for
assistance. And sanctions were as a result of this.
There are many positions, valuations and admonitions in this regard, but I would recommend to pay attention to the research “Sanctions against Russia: the current
state, prospects, successes and gaps of the multilateral international
sanctions regime against the Russian Federation”,
Kyiv, 2019[1] (http://icps.com.ua/assets/uploads/images/files/t_sankcii_rf_a4_ukr.pdf). Experts of the International Center for Prospect Studies – Mykola Kapitonenko, Anastasia Galushka, Yegor
Kiyan, Maxim Stepanenko, of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future – Ilia Kusa,
Igor Tyshkevich, Viktor Andrusiv; and of the “Sanctions 2020” Initiatives – Anna Talimonchuk;
and experts from the World Policy Institute and a number of
other analytic
centers participated in the preparation and
discussion of this research.
We remember that in 2014, the USA,
EU, Canada, Australia and several other countries harshly condemned to the Russia’s annexation of the Crimea, to the
Donbas war, and imposed sanctions against the
aggressor. Researchers say that economic, diplomatic and other sanctions have
become a typical instrument of international policy to influence on the geopolitical decisions of the government against which
they are directed. Despite the Russia’s important position in the international arena, the USA and EU have stated that they will not cancel the sanction regime for the time than Russia implementates the Minsk agreements and returns the annexed Crimean
peninsula to Ukraine[2]. The impact of sanctions
on the Russian economy is much talked about, but it is difficult to
establish their effectiveness at the economic and political levels. At the same
time, efficiency is a key component, since sanctions are first of all a means to cease and to
stop the
Russian aggression and to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The sanctions
themselves were not enough to change Russia’s foreign policy. Even so, the authors ask the question:
does this mean that sanctions are completely ineffective? And they replied: “Although the sanctions did not affect on the Russia’s behavior, they were still effective.
Despite the negative
impact of sanctions on the Russian economy
compared to 2014, was worldwide observed, the caused economic damage was not enough to change Russia’s policy towards Ukraine. It can be assumed that the
sanctions against Russia have not yet reached their full potential
due to their insufficient impact on the Russian economy and political class.
But what’s next: tightening of the sanctions,
maintaining the status quo, or gradually their mitigation? Modifications to strength more efficient and to mitigate the less effective instruments? What will be the conditions for the decisions of the multilateral sanctions
against Russia?”[3]
The question is, of course, urgent, but, in response to the
inculcation
of sanctions against the Russian Federation, Moscow, for the first, emphasize a
humanitarian catastrophe, by provoking and
stimulating the uncontrolled flow of migrants (again by terror and killing,
like Vladimir Lenin) in Syria, displaying
military power, involving the navy and
aviation. For
the second, by fair means or foul (by finance and oil dependency of the
old world, that
is by political corruption) it stores its place in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of
Europe. For
the third, Moscow resolved the Law on Non-recognition on the Russian territory
the decisions of international courts, including the European
Court of Human Rights: “Under the new decree, which was
released on
the December 15, 2019, the Constitutional
Court of Russia is authorized to decide on the possibility or impossibility of
implementation of the decisions of international courts. Simplier to say, if the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation
finds that the ECtHR has resolved an unlawful decision, then it
will not be necessary to implement such a decision”[4] (https://sovetnik.eu/rossiya-poluchila-pravo-ne-priznavat-resheniya-espch.html). You can also enumerate other versions of demonstrating
the “impregnability” of official Moscow:
intransigence in the Minsk negotiation process, especially in the question of election, security and
borders, fighting in Donbass, obviously, the achievement of secret diplomacy of
the Russian Federation in negotiations with the West countries in consequence of this
it is possible to observe weakening of the the influence of the latter on the eastern vector, in
particular, the
USA ignoring the interests of the Kurds, the
beginning of the withdrawal of USA military (and after them – representatives of
the Western coalition) from Afghanistan, withdrawing from the international obligations
to reduce and nonspread of nuclear
power, unprecedented modernization of weapons, warming in relations
with some leaders of the EU, including French President Emanuel Macron, the
actual legalization of the State Duma’s decision to stay retain V. Putin for ever on a post of a state chairman.
Moscovia, as before, as ever, needs a tsar.
Moscovia cannot be satisfied with the language of
negotiations, persuasions, diplomatic methods. It will always strive to impose on the
world its “values-traditions” that will have importance if the Moscovites dominate –
in the regional, European, Middle Eastern, world dimension.
Until then, the Moscovites will fight for the dreams of
their tsar and their authorities to become reality. The choice of
forces, tools and means is no longer a question. If it is
necessary to punish or destroy the enemy, the Kremlin is ready to use even the nuclear weapons, because compatriots all the same will forgive this sacrifice for the sake of the idea of “Slavic world”, “triumph of Orthodoxy”,
even at the cost of their own lives, because they will get
into paradise as martyrs[5]...
How, in this context, the position of the West, even, pro-Ukrainian and even anti-Putin, should be evaluated,
but the position with which Putin is made advances,
from which Putin is persuaded, from which Putin is trying to pacify, in a word, they do the same way they did before the Second World War with A. Hitler. The result of such a condemning-persuading-pasifing policy of the aggressor is well known to all. The West is once again approaching the same rake, trying to keep
its face in an unpleasant situation. The West introduces sanctions as if against the Kremlin, but in reality against some individuals (not against all, but only
a part!), which have political connections with Moscow
authorities. It does not impose sectoral, banking sanctions, that is, it allows
the Kremlin’s power to stay afloat and to cock a shook to the world. The West confirms its own inability or unwillingness to declare the Russian
Federation its enemy. The West has never realized that, despite its advances to Moscow and its perception as an obstinate companion, the official Kremlin has long waged a hybrid
war against the West - informational, cultural, historical and
has chosen the territory of modern Ukraine as a field of
local battles against the West, whose Ukraine that for
some reason dared to show her aggressor her teeth.
“The main purpose of sanctions, - as it is rightly stated in the above-mentioned research, - is to change the behavior of the
state against which sanctions are directed”[6]. Did Moscow’s behavior against
Ukraine and the West diminish? The question is rhetorical.
By the way, the Ukrainian mass media (especially
television), despite its considerable affiliation with the oligarchy, which in
recent decades is de facto a rulling caste
(political slogans, colors, rhetoric have changed, but not the essence –
anti-national, anti-social, dehumanizing), however they were able to keep their hands on the pulse of life,
taking in a principled patriotic, honest and professional position – Maidan-2004, Revolution
of Dignity-2013-2014. Ukrainian media and social networks have learned how to catch politicians on lies, how to
ask direct and awkward questions, how to demand explanation
– including about the treason in the negotiations in Minsk, when it is said about the
attempt to legitimize terrorist organizations
from ORDLO (Separate areas of Donetsk and Luhansk areas), with so-called the
LNR and the DNR[7]. But the problem with the
Ukrainian media is that they remain local, separated from he world contexts, they in no way affect the formation of an “agenda” in the world.
Recently, Ukrainian television has become almost inaccessible to Ukrainians as
well, since January 2020
satellite channels of the leading national
broadcasters have been encoded in Ukraine. If you
want to watch –you must pay. So-called T2 – decoders
more or less provide signal in big cities, which is not the case with villages
or remote areas.
In the context of understanding the place and role of Moscovia, I believe,
that the thesis of an international security expert, candidate of political science,
associate professor of the Taras Shevchenko National
University in Kyiv, director of the Center for International Relations
Research, a non-governmental organization dealing with regional security and of
Foreign Policy of Ukraine, Mykola Kapitonenko is worthy of note. In the speech “Russia’s Neighborhood Policy (Doctrine of “Limited
Sovereignty”)” on the “Foreign
Policy Portal” web site (http://fpp.com.ua), in the section “Generalized
Conclusions”, the author, in particular, notes that the situation in
the region of Eastern Europe and in all the
sub-regions important to Ukraine, including the Black Sea, is extremely
difficult today. In
the medium-term perspective it will remain the same,
since the factors detemining the security profile are, for the first, the revisionist policy of Russia aimed at reviewing
the current international institutes and norms, secondly, Russia’s long-term
desire to maintain / strengthen control over the "near abroad" states
and the Kremlin’s choice of methods to achieve this, for the third, the weakness of regional security structures, for the fourth, the lack of democracy in the region, and for the fifth, the crisis of confidence and the gradual transformation of
regional policy into a zero-sum game[8].
The essence of the geopolitical insolence of the cessionary of the Soviet Union and tsarist Russia
can be understood, but not justified. It is no secret for anyone that, being
the largest
state in the territory in the world, the largest military
power in the region (for example, towards the 2017,
Moscow spent more than $ 61 billion on the army, that’s five times more than Turkey and almost seven times more than Poland), but having an underdeveloped economy – about 2
percent of the world, Moscovia
will try to maintain its leadership position in terms of influence at the
expense of its closest neighbors, the so-called “Near
abroad”, which do not go out beyond NATO member
countries
bounds, because the greatest
regional potential of foreign policy of the Russian Federation is concentrated there[9]. M. Kapitenko rightly summarizes that the main goal of
Putin’s policy is to strengthen or at least maintain its influence
on the foreign and domestic policies of the Near abroad countries and this is possible
under the conditions of implementation of a number of steps, which, for the first, are formulated in
regulatory documents of Russia Federation, secondly, has emerged from the Kremlin’s foreign policy practices in recent years[10]. We are talking about the
Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation of November 30, 2016, in
particular, about the part IV, devoted
to regional priorities, and about the article by
Vladimir Putin (it is also called programmatic!) “The
new integration project for Eurasia – the future that is born
today” (October 2011)[11].
As far as 2011, it became apparent to all the people in the world
that Putin’s policy, that the policy of modern Moscovia, is the Soviet Union’s resuscitation policy, the policy of defining such an “agenda” in which the
Kremlin should dominate on the Eurasian territory. These
things could not be doubted after the war crimes and humanitarian catastrophes
in Ichkeria, Abkhazia, Georgia, which Moscow used as a litmus test of the
inadequacy, timeliness, indifference and cynicism of Western partners, which in the end did not
particularly want to be involved into geopolitics peculiarities according to Moscow’s plan. As for me, the
absence of a coherent Western front even then encourased the Kremlin’s new crimes, which
continue to this day. These new crimes made the USA,
Canada, the EU a little upset, and imposed light sanctions against the
aggressor in Ukraine and Syria, but no more.
The key question is one: The West cannot or the West does not want to
break the spine of a new imperial power with a center in Moscow?
If Putin understood that
the West does not yet want to destroy Russia, then it would behave in the international arena, though brutally, with a challenge,
but with caution. But if Putin realized that the West
cannot (will not oppose) the Kremlin, then Putin would not stop at NATO borders, but would
do everything to wreck both NATO and the EU. The only
question is: when and how?
Bibliography
1.
«Зрада, крутіша за коронавірус»: мережі лютують через переговори в Мінську
// BBC-Україна. 2020. 13 берез. URL: https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-51871711
2.
Капітоненко Микола. Політика Росії щодо сусідніх держав (доктрина
«обмеженого суверенітету»). URL: http://fpp.com.ua/polityka-rosiyi-shhodo-susidnih-derzhav-doktryna-obmezhenogo-suverenitetu/
3.
Крамар Олександр. Путін зробив ставку на реанімацію СРСР // Тиждень. 2011.
5 жовт. URL: https://tyzhden.ua/World/32268
4.
Росіяни-мученики – в рай, решта – здохнуть: Як Путін ядерну війну описував
(ВІДЕО) // Депо.юа. 2018. 18 жовт. URL:
https://www.depo.ua/ukr/svit/rosiyani-mucheniki-v-ray-reshta-zdohnut-yak-putin-yadernu-viynu-opisuvav-video-20181018855334
5.
Россия получила право не признавать решения ЕСПЧ. URL: https://sovetnik.eu/rossiya-poluchila-pravo-ne-priznavat-resheniya-espch.html.
6.
Санкції
проти Росії. Нинішній стан, перспективи, успіхи та
прогалини багатостороннього міжнародного санкційного режиму проти Російської
Федерації. К., 2019.
– 48 с. URL: http://icps.com.ua/assets/uploads/images/files/t_sankcii_rf_a4_ukr.pdf
7.
Цей день в історії: 8 березня 1169 р. Розорення Києва Андрієм Боголюбським.
URL: https://www.jnsm.com.ua/h/0308N/
[1] Санкції проти Росії. Нинішній стан, перспективи, успіхи та прогалини багатостороннього
міжнародного санкційного режиму проти Російської Федерації. К., 2019. – 48 с. URL: http://icps.com.ua/assets/uploads/images/files/t_sankcii_rf_a4_ukr.pdf
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Россия получила право не
признавать решения ЕСПЧ. URL:
https://sovetnik.eu/rossiya-poluchila-pravo-ne-priznavat-resheniya-espch.html.
[5] Росіяни-мученики – в рай,
решта – здохнуть: Як Путін ядерну війну описував (ВІДЕО) // Депо.юа. 2018. 18
жовт. URL: https://www.depo.ua/ukr/svit/rosiyani-mucheniki-v-ray-reshta-zdohnut-yak-putin-yadernu-viynu-opisuvav-video-20181018855334
[7] “Зрада, крутіша за
коронавірус”:
мережі лютують через переговори в Мінську // BBC.
Україна. 2020. 13 берез. URL: https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-51871711
[8] Капітоненко Микола. Політика
Росії щодо сусідніх держав (доктрина «обмеженого суверенітету»). URL: http://fpp.com.ua/polityka-rosiyi-shhodo-susidnih-derzhav-doktryna-obmezhenogo-suverenitetu/
[9] Ibid.
[10] Ibid.
[11] Див.: Крамар Олександр. Путін
зробив ставку на реанімацію СРСР // Тиждень. 2011. 5 жовт. URL: https://tyzhden.ua/World/32268
1 Цей день в історії: 8 березня 1169 р. Розорення Києва Андрієм Боголюбським. URL: https://www. jnsm. com.ua/h/0308N/
2 Isn’t it worth to Ukrainian women to ponder over that the day of the murder of hundreds and thousands of Ukrainian girls in Kyiv should still be celebrated as the so-called day of solidarity for women, or should it be declared as a Day of Mourning?
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